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The Analytics of Conflict

Readings Schedule

Click on a date to see assigned readings.

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September 15: Theory and Explanation in International Relations

• Elster, Jon. 2007. Explaining Social Behavior, pp. 7-66, 163-256, 299-443.

September 22: Systemic Theories of War

• Waltz, Kenneth N. 1988. "The Origins of War in Neorealist Theory," in Rotberg & Rabb, pp. 39-52.
• Brooks, Stephen. 1997. "Dueling Realisms." International Organization, 51(3): 445-478.
• Sheehan, Michael. 1996. The Balance of Power: History & Theory. London: Routledge. Pp. 1-96, 145-169.
• Gilpin, Robert. 1988. "The Theory of Hegemonic War," in Rotberg & Rabb, pp. 15-38.
• Kugler, Jacek, and A.F.K. Organski. 1989. "The Power Transition: A Retrospective and Prospective Evaluation," in The Handbook of War Studies, pp. 171-194.

September 29: Military Technology and Strategy

• Jervis, Robert. 1978. "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma." World Politics, 30(2): 167-214.
• Schelling, Thomas C. 1966. "The Dynamics of Mutual Alarm," in Arms and Influence, pp. 221-251.
• Van Evera, Stephen. 1998. "Offense, Defense, and the Causes of War." International Security, 22(4): 5-43.
• Lynn-Jones, Sean M. 1995. "Offense-Defense Theory and Its Critics." Security Studies, 4(4): 660-691.
• Van Evera, Stephen. 1984. "The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War." International Security, 9(1): 58-107.
• Glaser, Charles L. 2000. "The Causes and Consequences of Arms Races." Annual Review of Political Science, 3: 251-276.

October 6: Human Nature and Perception

• Somit, Albert. 1990. "Humans, Chimps, and Bonobos: The Biological Bases of Aggression, War, and Peacemaking." Journal of Conflict Resolution, 34(3): 553-582.
• Byman, Daniel L., and Kenneth M. Pollack. 2001. "Let Us Now Praise Great Men: Bringing the Statesman Back In." International Security, 25(4): 107-146.
• Levy, Jack S. 1983. "Misperception and the Causes of War: Theoretical Linkages and Analytical Problems." World Politics, 36(1): 76-99.
• Crawford, Neta C. 2000. "The Passion of World Politics: Propositions on Emotion and Emotional Relationships." International Security, 24(4): 116-156.
• Jervis, Robert. 1988. "War and Misperception," in Rotberg & Rabb, pp. 101-126.

October 13: Internal Causes: Attributes and Leaders

• Hanson, Victor Davis. 2002. "Why the West Has Won," and "Western Warfare: Past and Future" in Carnage and Culture, pp. 1-26, 440-455.
• Van Evera, Stephen. 1994. "Hypotheses on Nationalism and War." International Security, 18(4): 5-39.
• Huntington, Samuel P. 1996. "Clashes of Civilizations," in The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, pp. 207-265.
• Benjamin, Daniel, and Steven Simon. 2003. The Age of Sacred Terror. Westminster: Random House, pp. 38-94, 419-446.
• Levy, Jack S. 1989. "The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique," in The Handbook of War Studies, pp. 259-288.
• Levy, Jack S. 1988. "Domestic Politics and War," in Rotberg & Rabb, pp. 79-100.

October 20: Internal Causes: Institutions

• Allison, Graham, and Philip Zelikow. 1999. Essence of Decision, pp. 143-378.
• Doyle, Michael. 1983. "Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs." Philosophy and Public Affairs, 12(3): 205-235.
• Doyle, Michael. 1983. "Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs, Part 2." Philosophy and Public Affairs, 12(4): 323-353.
• Snyder, Jack. 1993. Myths of Empire. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, pp. 1-65, 305-322.
• Aldrich, John H., et al. 2006. "Foreign Policy and the Electoral Connection." Annual Review of Political Science, 9: 477-502.
• Baum, Matthew A., and Philip B.K. Potter. 2008. "The Relationships Between Mass Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy: Toward a Theoretical Synthesis." Annual Review of Political Science, 11: 39-65.

October 27: NO CLASS (Fall Recess)

• No readings.

November 3: Strategic Choice: General

• David Lake and Robert Powell. (Eds.) 1999. Strategic Choice and International Relations, pp. 3-136.
• Allison, Graham, and Philip Zelikow. 1999. Essence of Decision, pp. 13-142.
• Fearon, James D. 1995. "Rationalist Explanations for War." International Organization, 49(3): 379-414.
• Arreguin-Toft, Ivan. 2001. "How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict." International Security, 26(1): 93-128.

November 10: Strategic Choice: Uncertainty, Commitment, Reputation, and Regimes

• Blainey, Goeffrey. 1988. The Causes of War, pp. 3-176.
• Tang, Shiping. 2005. "Reputation, Cult of Reputation, and International Conflict." Security Studies, 14(1): 34-62.
• Goemans, Hein. 2000. "A Theory of War Termination," in War and Punishment, pp. 19-52.
• Slantchev, Branislav L. 2005. "Territory and Commitment: The Concert of Europe as Self-Enforcing Equilibrium." Security Studies, 14(4): 565-606.
• Hassner, Ron E. 2006. "The Path to Intractability: Time and the Entrenchment of Territorial Disputes." International Security, 31(3): 107-138.
• Goddard, Stacie E., Jeremy Pressman, and Ron E. Hassner. 2007. "Time and the Intractability of Territorial Disputes." International Security, 32(3): 191-201.

November 17: Nuclear Deterrence

• Schelling, Thomas C. 1966. "The Manipulation of Risk," in Arms and Influence, pp. 92-125.
• Powell, Robert. 1990. "The Nuclear Revolution and the Problem of Credibility," in Nuclear Deterrence Theory, pp. 6-32.
• Mueller, John. 1988. "The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons: Stability in the Postwar World." International Security, 13(2): 55-79.
• Jervis, Robert. 1988. "The Political Effects of Nuclear Weapons." International Security, 13(2): 80-90.
• Sagan, Scott D. 1997. "Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb." International Security, 21(3): 54-86.
• Sagan, Scott D. 1994. "The Perils of Proliferation: Organization Theory, Deterrence Theory, and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons." International Security, 18(4): 66-107.

November 24: The Origins of World War I

• Williamson, Jr., Samuel R. 1989. "The Origins of World War I," in Rotberg & Rabb, pp. 225-248.
• Maier, Charles S. 1989. "Wargames: 1914-1919," in Rotberg & Rabb, pp. 249-280.
• Lieber, Keir A. 2007. "The New History of World War I and What It Means for International Relations Theory." International Security, 32(2): 155-191.
• Snyder, Jack. 2008. "Defensive Realism and the `New' History of World War I." International Security, 33(1): 174-194.
• Trachtenberg, Marc. 1991. "The Meaning of Mobilization in 1914." International Security, 15(3): 120-150.
• Levy, Jack S., and Thomas J. Christensen. 1991. "Mobilization and Inadvertence in the July Crisis." International Security, 16(1): 189-203.
• Papayoanou, Paul. 1996. "Interdependence, Institutions, and the Balance of Power: Britain, Germany, and World War I." International Security, 20(4): 42-76.
• Howard, Michael. 1984. "Men against Fire: Expectations of War in 1914." International Security, 9(1): 41-57.
• Levy, Jack S. 1991. "Preferences, Constraints, and Choices in July 1914." International Security, 15(3): 151-186.

December 1: Presentations and Discussion

• TBD

December 8: Presentations and Discussion

• TBD