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National Security Strategy

Readings Schedule

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October 3: Introduction / Syllabus

• Class notes: Coercive Diplomacy.
• Hook & Spainer. Chapter 1: "The American Approach to Foreign Policy"
• Snyder, Jack. "One World, Rival Theories."
  Foreign Policy, Nov/Dec 2004, pp. 52-62.

A. Coercive Diplomacy and Military Power

October 6: Modeling Reality

• Class notes: Games and Information.

October 8: Strategies in Games

• Class notes: Strategies in Extensive Form Games.
• Powell, Robert. "Some Introductory Notes on Game Theory."
  From Nuclear Deterrence Theory. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), pp. 187-200.

October 10: Rational Behavior (Deterministic)

• Class notes: Best Responses and Nash Equilibrium.

October 13: Rational Behavior (Probabilistic)

• No readings: Nash Equilibrium in Mixed Strategies.

October 15: Credible Moves with Complete Information

• Class notes: Subgame Perfect Equilibrium.

October 17: Credible Moves with Incomplete Information

• Class notes: Sequential Equilibrium.
• Powell, Robert. "Some Introductory Notes on Game Theory."
  From Nuclear Deterrence Theory. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), pp. 201-220.

October 20: The Escalation Signaling Game, 1: Costly Signaling

• Class notes: Revealing and Eliciting Information: Sinking Costs & Tying Hands.

October 22: The Escalation Signaling Game, 2: Commitment

• Class notes: Revealing and Eliciting Information: Military Moves.

October 24: The Escalation Signaling Game, 3: Screening

• Class notes: Revealing and Eliciting Information: Screening and Incentive Schemes.

October 27: Deterrence and Compellence

• Class notes: Credible Commitments in Deterrence and Compellence.
• Schelling, Thomas. Arms and Influence, Chapters 1-3.
• Mueller, John. "Expanding Deterrence."
  From Quiet Cataclysm. (New York: HaperCollins, 1995), pp. 47-60.
• Treverton, Gregory F. "Framing Compellent Strategies."
  RAND Publication MR-1240-OSD, 2000.
• Fearon, James. "Rationalist Explanations for War."
  International Organization, Vol. 49, No. 3. (Summer, 1995), pp. 379-414.
• Powell, Robert. "States and Strategies," Chapter 1 in In the Shadow of Power, 1999.

October 29: Rationalist Theories of War, 1: Mutual Optimism

• Class notes: Rationalist Theories of War.
• Fearon, James. "Rationalist Explanations for War."
  International Organization, Vol. 49, No. 3. (Summer, 1995), pp. 379-414.
• Powell, Robert. "States and Strategies," Chapter 1 in In the Shadow of Power, 1999.

October 31: Rationalist Theories of War, 2: Commitment

• Class notes: Rationalist Theories of War.

November 3: Rationalist Theories of War, 3: Costly Peace

• Class notes: Rationalist Theories of War.

B. Evolution of U.S. Strategic Doctrine

November 5: The Nature of the Soviet Union, 1917-1945

• Class notes: Nature of the Soviet Union.
• Maps
• Europe after World War I: 1919
• Europe under fascism: 1941-45
• Europe after World War II: 1946
• The Far East after World War II: 1946
• The Middle East after World War II: 1946
• Map of the Soviet Union
• Casablanca Conference, February 12, 1943.
• Cairo Declaration, November (released December 1), 1943.
• Tehran Conference, November 28-December 1, 1943.
• Yalta Conference, February, 1945.
• Potsdam Conference, Protocol of the Proceedings, August 1, 1945.

November 7: Containment as Grand Strategy during the Cold War

• Class notes: The Strategy of Containment.
• Hook & Spainer. Chapter 2: "From World War to Cold War"
• Churchill, Winston S. "A Shadow Has Fallen on Europe and Asia." (Iron Curtain Speech)
  Speech at Westminster College, Fulton, Missouri, March 5, 1946.
• Stalin, Joseph V. "Stalin's Reply to Churchill."
  The New York Times, March 14, 1946 (interview with Pravda), p. 4.
• Kennan, George. "Telegraphic Message from Moscow." (The Long Telegram)
  02/22/46. Reprinted from Memoirs, 1925-1950. (New York: Pantheon Books, 1967), pp. 547-559.
• Mr. X (George Kennan). "The Sources of Soviet Conduct."
  Foreign Affairs, July, 1947.
• Novikov, Nikolai. "The Novikov Telegram."
  09/27/46. Reprinted from Origins of the Cold War. (Washington, DC: USIP, 2001)
• Zhdanov, Andrei. "Report on the International Situation." (Response to X)
  Speech to Cominform, September 22, 1947.
• Frank, Richard B. "No War: No End," in What If? Eminent Historians Imagine What Might Have Been.

November 10: MIDTERM EXAMINATION

• In-class, closed book/notes

November 12: Sword and Shield: Deterrence and Defense of Europe, 1945-1952

• Class notes: Sword and Shield.
• Hook & Spainer. Chapter 3: "Containment: From Theory to Practice."
• Acheson, Dean. "The Requirements of Reconstruction."
  Undersecretary of State Acheson on the European recovery plan, May 8, 1947.
• Marshall, George C. "European Initiative Essential to Economic Recovery."
  Secretary of State Marshall on the European recovery plan, June 5, 1947.
• Truman, Harry S. "Special Message to the Congress on Greece and Turkey." (The Truman Doctrine)
  Speech before a Joint Session of Congress, March 12, 1947.
• Vyshinsky, Andrei. "A Soviet Criticism of the Truman Doctrine and Marshall Plan."
  September 18, 1947
• Botting, Douglas. "The Berlin Airlift of 1948."
  From the Ruins of the Reich: Germany 1945-1949, (New York: New American Library, 1985).
• NSC 68: United States Objectives and Programs for National Security.
  Naval War College Review, Vol. 27 (May-June, 1975), pp. 51-108.

November 14: Thermonuclear War and Nuclear Deterrence

• Class notes: Nuclear Deterrence.
• Primers:
  1. Primer on the US Armed Forces
  2. Primer on Military Technology
  3. Primer on Weapons of Mass Destruction
• Schelling, Thomas. Arms and Influence, Chapters 4-7.
• Wohlstetter, Albert. "The Delicate Balance of Terror."
  RAND, P-1472, November 6, 1958. Foreign Affairs, Vol. 37. (1959), pp. 211-234.
• Powell, Robert. "The Nuclear Revolution and the Problem of Credibility."
  From Nuclear Deterrence Theory. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), pp. 6-32.

November 17: Nuclear Horrors, 1

• Essay topic distributed in class.
• Film, Trinity and Beyond: The Atomic Bomb Movie. 1999, 92 min.

November 19: Nuclear Horrors, 2

• Remainder of film, Trinity and Beyond: The Atomic Bomb Movie. 1999, 92 min.

November 21: Limited War and Korea, 1950-1953

• Class notes: The Korean War.
• Map of the Korean War
• Chinese Foreign Ministry. Why China Intervened in Korea?
  United Nations Document S/ 1902, November 15, 1950, pp. 2-4.
• Weathersby, Kathryn. "Soviet Aims in Korea and the Origins of the Korean War, 1945-1950."
  Cold War International History Project, Working Paper No.8.

November 24: The New Look: Massive Retaliation, 1953-1960

• Class notes: The New Look.
• Hook & Spainer. Chapter 4: "North-South Tensions and the Vietnam War."
• President Eisenhower & Advisers. U.S. Options During the Suez and Hungarian Crises
  Memorandum of Discussion at the 303rd Meeting of the NSC, Washington, November 8, 1956.
• Khrushchev, Nikita S. "On Peaceful Coexistence."
  Foreign Affairs, Vol. 38, No. 1, pp. 1-18.

November 26: Into the Missile Age: Flexible Response, 1961-1969

• Class notes: Flexible Response.
• McNamara, Robert. "The No-Cities Doctrine."
  University of Michigan Commencement Speech, June 1962.

November 28: NO CLASS (Thanksgiving)

• No readings.

December 1: The Cuban Missile Crisis

• Class notes: The Cuban Missile Crisis

December 3: The Vietnam War, 1954-1975

• Essay due at the beginning of class.
• Class notes: The Vietnam War.
• Map of Vietnam
• Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, August 10, 1964.
• War Powers Resolution, November 7, 1973.
• Boot, Max. The Savage Wars of Peace, Chapter 13: Lessons Unlearned

December 5: Détente and the Strategy of Sufficiency, 1970-1980

• Class notes: The Rise and Fall of Détente.
• Hook & Spainer. Chapter 5: "Détente and World Order Politics."
• Map of Europe, the Iron Curtain in 1972
• Morgenthau, Hans J. "To Intervene or Not to Intervene."
  Foreign Affairs, (April 1967), pp. 424-436.

December 8: Evil Empire: The Reagan Revolution, 1981-1989

• Class notes: Evil Empire
• Hook & Spainer. Chapter 6: "The Revival of Superpower Confrontation."

December 10: New World Order, 1990-2000

• Class notes: New World Order.
• Hook & Spainer. Chapter 7: "The End of the Cold War."
• Map of Europe after the Cold War, 1998
• Posen, Barry R., and Andrew L. Ross. "Competing Visions for U.S. Grand Strategy."
  International Security, Vol. 21, No. 3. (Winter 1996/97), pp. 5-53.

December 12: Course Summary & Review

• No readings.

D. Final Examination

December 19: 8:00a-11:00a

• In-class, closed book, closed notes.
• Study Aid for the Final